Forecasts of AI & Economic Growth
Summary
Cunningham collects dozens of forecasts for AI’s effect on economic growth. Most economists expect roughly 0.1–1.5 percentage points of additional annual growth, while many AI insiders expect 3–30 points. He argues that much of this disagreement comes from different assumptions about future AI capabilities rather than diffusion or economic adjustment alone.
Why it matters
The collection makes the unusually wide range of AI-growth expectations visible and exposes the capability assumptions hidden inside apparently economic forecasts.
What to keep in mind
The estimates cover different countries, periods, and outcomes—including GDP, productivity, and world output—and are therefore not directly comparable. The page is also updated over time.