Europe 2031: What getting AI wrong means for us
Summary
Europe 2031 presents a deliberately pessimistic scenario in which Europe responds too slowly to rapid AI progress and becomes dependent on American and Chinese systems. It traces how gaps in compute, capital, adoption, and institutional speed could weaken productivity, public finances, and political autonomy.
Why it matters
The scenario puts AI diffusion and value capture at the center of the European question: access to capable models may not generate broad growth if firms and institutions cannot reorganize around them.
What to keep in mind
This is a scenario designed to make a possible failure path concrete, not a forecast or an empirical estimate.