Economics and Transformative AI
Summary
Cunningham argues that economics still lacks a standard model of transformative AI. He connects continuing capability growth to diffusion, poorly measured consumer benefits, changing relative prices, machine-led scientific discovery, and a possible shift of income from labor toward owners of scarce resources if machines eventually substitute for almost all human work.
Why it matters
The essay joins questions about capabilities, adoption, measurement, wages, resource ownership, and scientific progress that are usually analyzed separately.
What to keep in mind
This is a collection of workshop observations and speculative models. Its stark labor conclusion assumes abundant machine substitutes, scarce physical inputs, and no special demand for human-provided work.