AI Economics

AI 2027

Summary

AI 2027 lays out a month-by-month scenario in which increasingly capable agents automate AI R&D, accelerating progress and concentrating economic and strategic power in a small number of labs. It makes the scenario concrete with estimates for compute, capital spending, power use, revenue, labor-market disruption, and a branching race-versus-slowdown ending.

Why it matters

The scenario connects recursive AI progress to tangible economic inputs and outcomes: data centers, electricity, investment, firm concentration, research productivity, wages, and geopolitical competition.

What to keep in mind

This is the original scenario published on 3 April 2025, not a consensus forecast. Its authors explicitly describe it as one concrete, highly uncertain path and have since updated their timelines.

Sources